Abstract for: The influence of trade value to rice agriculture in Japan

Japan's agriculture has latent powers. However, its power is restricted due to problems of aging farmers, abandoned fields, and shortage of farmers. This situation has stepped forward in the world, especially in northeast Asia. Rice is one of the most important crops in Japan, the Japanese government has strongly protected its domestic production by using law and institutions. Our system dynamics simulation has revealed that diffusion of new technology such as "cultivation by direct seeding" will decrease the rice price in the market. As a result, farmers who introduce new technology will take over the charge of conventional farmers, cultivate wider areas of rice field, and then increase their agricultural profit. Consequently, we predict that the amount of rice production in Japan will be increased and rice inventory is stable when trade starts.