Abstract for: Tobacco policy modelling in New Zealand

This presentation provides an overview of the author’s collaborative work on tobacco policy modelling in New Zealand, which has been published in System Dynamics Review (2006), Systems Research & Behavioral Science (2008) & the American Journal of Public Health (2010). The focus of this paper will be on the work published with Dr Martin Tobias, from the New Zealand Ministry of Health. This involves outlining the system dynamics model developed to evaluate the dynamic consequences of tobacco control policies in New Zealand. The model is simulated for 20–50 years into the future, with the iThink dynamic simulation package. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided, including: business as usual; fiscal strategies involving less affordable cigarettes; harm minimization strategies involving either less addictive cigarettes or less toxic cigarettes, and combinations of policies. The main performance measures include current smoking prevalence, tobacco consumption and tobacco attributable mortality. The model generates reliable estimates of the effects on health and on tobacco use of interventions designed to enhance smoking cessation. These results informed a decision announced in May 2007 to increase funding for smoking cessation by NZ$42 million over 4 years. Some recent planned work with this model will also be outlined.