Abstract for: A Simulation Model of Deaths in Japanese Working Men by Major Groups of Industry

An employment rate in Japan had risen from 2.0% in 1980 to 5.4% in 2002, and fluctuates between 4 and 5% in these years. Higher death rate in unemployed people is one of the public health issues. This study aimed to develop a simulation model to evaluate an impact of unemployment on deaths among Japanese men. Aging chains were constructed by 5-year age groups between 30 and 59 years separately for primary, secondary and tertiary industries and unemployment, and populations for each age group and industry between 1980 and 2010 were optimized to actual numbers in the Report of Vital Statistics: Occupational and Industrial Aspects published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare every 5 years. Though a total number of deaths will decrease by 28% from 2010 to 2020, the percentage of deaths in unemployed men will increase from 53% to 62% due to the increasing number of unemployed men.