Abstract for: Funding-Gap for Infrastructure Project in Masterplan of Indonesia Economic Development: A System Dynamics Approach

Total investment in Indonesia until 2025, according to Masterplan Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025 (MP3EI)(2010), is IDR 4,482 triliun or US$448 billion included infrastructure project IDR1,774 triliun. The composition of funders come from private 49%, government 12%, SOE 18%, and mix is 21%. But, actually after launching this program in 2011, MP3EI program has spent IDR737,9 triliun (16.5%) on October 2013. There are many constraints that caused this deceleration, one of them is funding-gap. Baker & McKenzie (2013) reported that in Middle East and Asia-Pasific, government-backed institutions often lent more than commercials banks on major projects, and they found that export credit agencies (ECAs) and development finance institutions (DFIs) had seen “exponential growth” since the start of the financial crisis is 2008. This paper examines why MP3EI program especially infrastructure projects in Indonesia as part of Asia-Pasific still slow and analyze it with use actual data then be forecasted until 2025 and 2045. Method that used to forecast funding-gap until 2025 and 2045 is system dynamics and how to interven it in order to remove the funding-gap.